摘要
由于我国人口普查存在着漏报现象,致使各年龄的人口总数与实际存在一定程度的不吻合,尤其是未成年人(0-14岁),人口数量存在的问题更为严重,从而由此推算的未成年人的年龄别死亡概率qx,c与实际不符。针对此问题,本文建立了一个修正后的Gompertz生存模型,并利用这一修正后的生存模型对我国普查所得的年龄别死亡概率进行调整,为准确估计未成年人年龄别死亡概率提供一个新的方法。
In past census of China,there was a problem that not few people failed to register,so that the infered population deviates from real population in some extent.Especially,the problem at the age interval from 0 to 14 is more serious.This leads that the infered infant age-specific mortality probability q_(x,c) from data is not reliable.To solve the problem,in this paper we establish a modified Gompertz survival model and apply this model to adjust q_(x,c).Also,a new method of accurate estimating infant age-specific mortality probablilty is proposed.
出处
《数理统计与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2004年第1期7-10,共4页
Journal of Applied Statistics and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(10171051)的支持。
关键词
未成年人
死亡概率
实证分析
中国
人口普查
Gomperts Survival Model
Moment Generating Function
Age-specific Mortality Probability
