普尔基本分析与货币政策中介目标

Poole's Basic Analysis and Intermediary larget of Monetary Policy

在研究我国货币政策的近期文献中,货币供给量能否继续用作我国货币政策的中介目标是一个有争议的焦点问题。本文运用普尔基本分析提供的决策规则,通过实证分析证明,在我国目前条件下,以货币供给量作为货币政策中介目标仍然是有效的,没有改变的必要。导致货币政策低效率的主要原因之一,是利率管制造成的货币政策操作程序的內在缺陷。本文的政策结论是,必须进一步加快利率市场化改革进程,以完善货币政策操作程序。

It is a controversial issue whether to maintain money supply as an intermediary target of monetary policy in China in the recent literature on monetary policy in China. Employing the decision rule of intermediary target of monetary policy expounded by Poole's analysis, the paper proves that, in the current situation in China, it is still effective to choose monetary supply as the intermediary target of monetary policy and therefore, it is not necessary to change it. The main cause of low efficiency of monetary policy is the indigenous flaw of operating procedure of monetary policy caused by interest rate control. The policy conclusion of the paper is that the market-oriented interest rate reform must be accelerated in order to perfect the operation procedure of monetary policy.