装备使用保障费用灰色建模分析

Analysis for operational and support cost of equipment using grey model

使用保障费用的估算是寿命周期费用管理的重要部分。通过分析装备使用保障费用的信息特点及其要素特征,建立了费用分析模型。考虑到装备使用保障费用数据量有限、复杂多变,用一般方法准确地预测很困难,因此提出用灰色系统理论进行费用预测的方法,建立了GM(1,1)模型及GM(1,1)预测模型。并用实际数据进行了验证,表明该方法具有很好的预测精度,可用于装备使用保障费用的预测和估算。

Estimating operational and support cost is an important part of LCC(life circle cost) management. To analyze information features and element characteristic of operational and support cost of equipment, a cost analysis model is established. Due to the finity, complexity and variety of operational and support cost data of equipment, it is difficult to accurately predict using general method. A method which applies grey systemic theory to the cost prediction is proposed. GM(1,1) model and GM(1,1) prediction model are established, and verified through factual data, the precision of prediction is high. The method can be used to predict and estimate operational and support cost of equipment.;