陕甘宁青蒙相邻干旱地区近530年旱涝灾害、突变分析及其趋势预测

Near 500 Years Drought-Waterlogging Analyze and Its Tendence Study in Arid Area of East of Northwest China

本文以研究范围内有代表性的 1 3个气象台站自 1 470年至 2 0 0 0年旱涝等级资料为基础 ,采用平均旱涝等级值和旱涝灾害指数作为旱涝灾害的指标 ,较确切地反映出该研究范围内各年旱涝灾害轻重的程度 ;凭籍 L epage检验、功率谱等方法 ,对近 5 30年的不同时间尺度的阶段性、周期性和突变特点进行了分析 ;引进均生函数累加延拓的时序建模方案 ,对该区的旱涝灾害序列有很好的拟合和预测效果。

Based on drought-waterlogging grades data from 1470 to 2000 of 13 meteorological observation,average drought-waterlogging grades and drought-waterlogging index are used to represent the level of drought-waterlogging.With Lepage test,the phase period and abrupt change of different temporal scales near 500 years are analyzed.The method of modeling with mean generaf function are used to gain good effect in simulating and forecast on drought-waterlogging series.