解析中国股市与宏观经济的背离

On the Deviations of Stock Market From the Macro Economy

与宏观经济发展态势明显不同的是,中国股市近两年来迭创新低,股市与宏观经济的背离已成为某些人质疑中国经济增长真实性的理由。通过从股市周期与宏观经济周期的关系、中国股市的功能定位、指数设计的缺陷、上市公司的结构分析和盈利能力分析、政策的多变性、国有股减持和高价增发给市场造成的冲击等方面,来分析这种背离现象的真正原因,通过经济因素和政策的因素的分析,认为中国股市与宏观经济的背离更多是由于中国股市自身的原因所造成的。

As we all know,it is abnormal when the tendency of the stock is apart from the macro economic growth.This paper is attempted to analyze the extend of effect brought by some factors, such as the relationship between the stock market cycle and macroeconomic cycle,the function of Chinese stock market,the analysis of structure and profit ability of the listed companies,the variation of polices.At the end of the paper,a conclusion is reached that the main reason that brought the deviation of stock market from macro economy is of its own,having little relation to the macroeconomic situation.