济南市人均耕地警戒线探讨

STUDY ON THE CORDON OF PER CAPITA CULTIVATED LAND OF JINAN

从人均耕地警戒线的预测来说明济南市耕地资源所面临的危机 ,以提高人们的保护耕地的意识 .从济南市耕地现状进行分析 ,借助于人口、耕地面积的预测值 ,预测 2 0 10年济南市人均耕地占有量为 0 .0 5 3hm2 .根据粮食单产、粮食播种面积占总播种面积之比、复种指数等指标的预测值 ,按人均 45 0kg的粮食占有量测算了济南市 2 0 10年人均耕地警戒线值为 0 .0 5 93hm2 ,这一数值低于全国人均耕地警戒线值 0 .11hm2 [1 ] .

With the constant growth of the population and the constant progress of the society,the land resource is in short day by day.The population of Jinan is large,The cultivated land resource is little.The degree of the development is relatively high and the reseve resource is limited.The cultivated land area is reducing year by year,so the contradiction of the people and land is very conspicuous.This paper come and prove the crisis that the Jinan's cultivated land resource faces from the prediction of per capita cultivated land cordon,in order to improve people's protection consciousness.On the base of the analyse of Jinan's cultivated land,through the prediction of population and cultivated land,the author predict the occupancy volume of per capita cultivated land of Jinan in 2010 is 0.053 hm 2.According to the predicted value of the grain yields of the per unit atea,the proportion of the grain crop area and the economic crop area,the multiple crop index,the author predicts the per capita cultivated land cordon value of Jinan in 2010 is 0.057 hm 2,and the value is less than national per capita cultivated land cordon worth 0.11 hm 2.On this basis,the author puts forward the rational use and protection measure of the cultivated land of Jinan.