“SARS”病死率数学模型实例分析

The Instance Analysis of Mortality Mathematical Model on SARS

在疫情结束以前,确定病死率的问题是一个困难的问题;由于预测方法不同,各地区公布的数字差别很大,也为疫情控制措施的制订带来了不便.在给出了动态病死率的概念,动态病死率极限值概念及疫情得到有效控制的日期动态病死率作为病死率近似值概念的基础上,作出了疫情得到有效控制的基本假设;给出了2个前陡后缓的"Ω"形曲线,对疫程进行了预测;并为疫情预测与控制提供了一种新的分析工具.

It is a difficult problem to determine the mortality before the 'SARS' disease is controlled. Different forecast methods bring different results. It has brought difficulties to make effective measures to control the epidemic situation. The paper develops the definition of the dynamic mortality and the limit value of the dynamic mortality. When the disease is controlled, the current dynamic mortality is used as the mortality. The paper also gives the basic precondition that the epidemic situation had been controlled, draws two curves like the symbol 'Ω', and forecasts the epidemic situation. The paper introduces the effective analytical tools to forecast and control the epidemic situation.