中国国债规模的分析与思考

An Analysis of and Thoughts on the Scale of the Chinese National Debt

衡量国债规模的指标体系主要有两大类,即绝对量指标体系和相对量指标体系。从绝对量指标看,自1981年恢复发行国债以来,我国国债规模日趋增大,特别是近几年来随着积极财政政策的实施,我国国债规模进一步膨胀。从相对量指标看,我国国债规模陷入了"财政重负和国民经济应债能力宽松"的矛盾之中。正确认识这一矛盾和判断我国国债规模的大小,除了利用上述指标分析方法以外,更要结合我国的特殊情况进行分析,这样才能得出比较准确的结论。

There are mainly two types of index systems for measuring the scale of national debt, ie the absolute index system and the relative index system. In terms of absolute volume, the scale of the Chinese national debt has been increasing since its restoration in 1981. With the implementation of the positive fiscal polity in recent years in particular, its scale has further expanded. In terms of relative volume, its scale has sunk into the contradiction between 'heavy fiscal burden and the ample ability of the national economy to support it'. In order to properly understand the contradiction and judge the scale of the Chinese national debt, we should not only use the above index analysis but also conduct the analysis in view of the particular situation in China. Only in this way can relatively accurate conclusions be drawn.