伊拉克战后中东形势评估

A Review of the Middle East Situation in the wake of the War on lraq

通过阿富汗战争和伊拉克战争,美国进一步实现了其战略构想——在全球地缘战略中建构扼住中东、控制两洋的"哑铃态势",推导出规范世界秩序的"中东模式",但是并没有给中东带来和平,相反使局势更力口动荡。解决巴以冲突并不缺少"方案",关键在于如何落实方案,如果以色列继续坚持强硬立场,那么无论谁出任巴总理都将难有作为。人类社会步入21世纪之后,国际社会更不应无视巴勒斯坦人民继续生活在以色列的军事占领下。动荡的伊拉克充满变数,未来局势的发展在很大程度上取决于美伊民族矛盾、伊拉克重建问题、伊拉克各派势力的矛盾、主要大国与美国的争斗等4种矛盾的相互作用。此外,伊拉克还存在被肢解的危险。

Through wars of Afghanistan and Iraq,the U.S.is closer to achievement of its geo-strate- gic calculation:setting foot on the Middle East while firmly in control of the two oceans(the so called'dumbbell pattern').The U.S.is hotly pursuing'the Middle East Model',in a hope to make the new world order more in its interest.But in the contrary,the U.S.'s effort brought turmoil to the Middle East rather than peace.There are so many plans for resolving the Israeli-Palestine conflict,but none of them is carried out in ear- nest.With the Israelis continuing to take the hard stance,whoever became the Palestinian Premier, he can not be expected to do anything.With the 21 st century unfolding,the international commu- nity should not ignore the plight of the Palestinian people living under the Israeli military occupa- tion.There are many uncertainties in the troubled Iraq,whose future will be largely determined by four factors:the contradiction between the U.S. and the Iraqi people,the Iraqi reconstruction,the contentions among different Iraqi forces,and con- tradiction between the major powers and the U.S. A..There is also the danger that Iraq might be dismembered.