全球气候变化对四川盆地可能蒸散率(PER)的影响模拟

Simulation of influence of global climate change on potential evapotranspiration rate ( PER ) in Sichuan Basin

针对目前全球气候在降水和温度方面异常变化的情况 ,本文在利用信息技术对四川盆地的可能蒸散率 (PER)在未来 5种水热组合下的变化情况进行了模拟。结果表明 ,在全球气候变化的条件下 ,当温度升高时 ,四川省PER值将增高 ,分布区域将以 4个气候敏感区为核心 ,由东南向西北方向扩增 ,但随着降水量的增加 ,PER值将降低 。

Considering global climate change unusually in precipitation and temperature, the author simulated its influence on the Potential Evapotranspiration Rate (PER) in Sichuan Basin under five kinds of climate combinations in the future using information technology. The result indicated that the PER-value in Sichuan will become higher when air temperature in the whole world goes up. The distribution will start from 4 sensitive spots as the center and expand from southeast to northwest. But with the increasing precipitation, the PER-value will decrease and the distribution trend will shrink gradually in the direction to southeast.