林分因子与舞毒蛾危害程度的风险评估

Stand Description Factors and Risk Analysis of Harm Extent of the Gypsy Moth

研究了 12个影响舞毒蛾危害程度的林分因子 ,对这些林分因子对舞毒蛾危害程度进行逐步回归分析 ,从中筛选出主林层郁闭度、土壤瘠薄程度和林地面积 3个关键因子。结果表明 :土壤瘠薄程度与舞毒蛾危害程度呈正相关 ,其余 2个关键因子与舞毒蛾危害程度呈显著的负相关。用这 3个因子与舞毒蛾危害程度建立多元线形回归模型 ,该模型可对舞毒蛾危害程度进行风险评估。

stand description factors affecting the harm extent of the Gypsy moth(Ocneria dispar) was studied,through stepwise regression analysis from which three significant ones were selected:crown density, infertile extent of soil and forest area.The results showed that a direct correlation exists between infertile extent of soil and the harm extent of the gypsy moth,a significant inverse correlation exists between the other two key factors and the harm extent of this insect.Using the three key factors a multiphase linear regression model was made for risk analysis of the harm extent of the gypsy moth.