气候变化对越南北方水稻生产的影响

Climatic Change and Its Effect on Rice Yields in the North Vietnam

利用越南北方各省19个代表站近50a的气候和水稻资料,采用EOF等数理统计方法,分析了气候变化对越南北方水稻生产的影响。同时讨论了水稻趋势产量和气象产量变化的特征,气温、降水等要素与水稻产量之间的关系以及1959年以来气象灾害对越南北方水稻产量形成的影响,并通过积分回归分析探讨了不同因子在不同时段对水稻生产的作用,进而提出在未来气候变暖背景下越南北方应采取的相应对策。

This paper uses the daily meteorological data at 19 representative locations over the recent 50 years to analyze Northern Vietnam's climatic change and its effects on rice production.EOF(Empirical Orthogonal Function),integral regression and other statistical methods are adopted to analyze the correlation between rice yields and many meteorological elements such as temperature and precipitation etc,the impact of meteorological disasters on rice yields since 1959,and the effect of different meteorological factors in different growth phases on rice yields.At last,several measures for rice production are suggested on the background of future climatic warming.