论新经济下虚拟经济的阶段发展与实体经济

Study on the Stage Development of the Fictitious Economy and the Real Economy in the Period of New Economy

作为新经济的一种重要形态 ,虚拟经济在其发展过程中经历了四个阶段与形态。它不仅对实体经济具有极大的依赖性 ,而且由于其运行方式的独特性 ,虚拟经济在其不同发展阶段也能对实体经济产生巨大的反作用 ,突出地表现在递增效应、溢出效应、异化效应和挤出效应上。由于当前虚拟经济的发展规模已经大大超过实体经济 ,逐渐在向异化效应的方向发展 ,因此 ,采取有效措施防止虚拟经济进一步趋向膨胀阶段 ,最大限度地消除“挤出效应” ,乃是各国宏观经济管理部门的当务之急。

As an important form of the New Economy, the fictitous economy has experienced four stages in its development. Not only does it rely on the real economy deeply, but also it has huge retroactions on the real economy, due to its characteristic in the circulation. These retroactions are as follows: the increasing effect, the overflow effect, the dissimilation effect and the extrusion effect. Since the scale of the fictitious economy is much larger than that of the real economy at present and it is going toward the stage of dissimilation effect gradually, it is urgent for the governments at all levels to take up necessary steps to prevent the fititious economy from tending to the stage of expansion and to minimize its extrusion effect.