中国股票市场价格波动特征分析

The Characteristic Analysis of the Price Fluctuation in China's Stock Market

在股票市场中最令人捉摸不定,也最具有吸引力的是波动不已的股票价格。文章对中国股票市场价格波动的分析是从1997年9月展开至2002年10月,其间恰逢中国股市经历了一段从牛市的繁荣到熊市的萧条的过程,两种泾渭分明的市场氛围恰好提供了一个深入研究股票市场价格波动特征的有利契机。遵循经济控制论研究的思路,文章采用了理论分析、市场交易数据的实证研究等技术手段对中国股票市场价格波动进行了研究,通过运用经济控制论的方法建立理论模型,以上海股市和深圳股市的综合指数为样本,对中国股票市场系统本身的波动特征和稳定性进行了量化分析。

The fluctuating stock price is the most unfathomable but also the most attractive element in the stock market. The research into the fluctuation in China's stock market proceeds between Sept.1997 and Oct.2002, during which Chinese stock market happened to experience a procedure from flourish to winter. These two quite different conditions provide us with a good opportunity to research further into the fluctuation characteristics in Chinese stock market. According to the economic control theory, this paper adopts the theory analysis, positive analysis of the market exchange data and other technical methods to conduct an indepth study of the price fluctuation of China's stock market. The forth chapter establish the theory model by the use of economic control theory, choose the comprehensive index of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange as samples, and make a quantitative analysis of the fluctuation. 