固定汇率制度可维持与经济政策时间一致性

Fixed Exchange Rate Can Keep Consistence In Time with Economic Policy

在回顾主要的货币危机形成理论后,提出了分析货币危机的一条主线:汇率稳定政策是时间不一致的经济政策。汇率稳定政策的时间不一致性是导致国际投机资本冲击汇率的根本原因。在此分析基础上,进一步提出实现可维持汇率稳定的四项基本措施:第一,汇率稳定制度的法律化;第二,适当扩大汇率稳定的目标;第三,通过其他政策的配合使宏观经济形势稳定;第四,健全银行体系。

After reviewing principal theories of the formation of monetary crises, the author sets forth a major clue for analysis of monetary crises: Policy of stabilized exchange - rate is an economic policy inconsistent in time; Inconsistence in time of a stabilized exchange - rate policy is the root cause of exchange - rate assaulted by international speculative capitals. On the basis of this analysis , the author suggests four steps to maintain stability of the exchange rate: First, make the stable exchange - rate system a law. Second, appropriately expand the range of objectives of the stable exchange rate. Third, stabilize the macro - economic situation coordinated by other policies. Fourth, perfect the banking system.