威权政体及其转型:理论模型和研究途径

The Authoritarian Regime and Its Transition: Theoretical Models and Approaches

关于威权政体及其转型的研究 ,是 2 0世纪下半叶政治社会学研究的主流。林兹建构的威权政体的“理念型”和奥唐奈的官僚—威权主义发生模式有相当的学术价值 ,但“政治高压、经济成长”模型并不能被拉美和东亚大多数威权国家发展的经验事实所印证。在威权体制下要达成经济现代化 ,某些结构性前提条件是必不可少的 ,否则经济发展和政治稳定均不可能。政治转型的主要研究途径——结构分析法和策略互动论各有优点与缺失 ,将政治转型的结构因素与政治过程中政治行动者的策略互动联结起来分析 ,可能更有助于解释威权政治转型的原因、过程与结果。

The study of authoritarian politics was the mainstream field of political sociology in the second half of the 20th century. The 'ideal-type' of authoritarian regime constructed by Juan Linz and the O'Donnell model about bureaucratic-authoritarianism laid the foundations for the further study of this field. However, the thesis of 'political coercion' and 'economic growth' remains to be a hypothesis. By the experience of the modernization with authoritarian regime in East Asia and Latin America, the authoritarian politics does not necessarily generate economic growth. Without certain structural conditions, it might lead to unstable politics and non-developed economic. This paper also makes systematic comments on the main approaches of the political transition to democracy.