基于信息熵的城市居民家庭能源消费结构演变分析——以无锡市为例

Analyses on evolution of household energy consumption structure based on information entropy

受能源赋存状况及经济发展水平影响,不同地区之间的能源消费结构往往存在很大差别,对其结构演变很难用一个具体的指标来衡量。论文通过信息熵的引入,试图来解决这个问题,并最终取得了满意的效果和结论。对无锡市1990～2002年间城市居民家庭能源消费结构的熵值演变特征进行动态分析后发现,1994年前后,无锡市城市居民家庭能源消费结构信息熵的变化呈现出截然相反的特征,并且与城镇居民实际可支配收入及人均能源消费总量变化高度相关。在深入分析其演化特征和原因的基础上,对无锡市城市居民能源消费结构的演化方向作出了展望。

The evolvement of energy structure is generally towards the cleaner and more efficie-nt direction.To a concrete region,the energy structure is not only determined by the energy situation in local area,but also correlated to the economic development level.So the energy structure and its evolvement are quite complex.Since the energies are various and also the dimensions are different,it is difficult to describe it by a definite quantity,and it is also a difficulty to contrast energy structure between two different regions.Finally we found a key to solve this problem,it is the informational entropy,a status function that can be used to describe the complexity and chaos of any system that consists of many factors,so we can quote this concept to study the energy consumption system.In this paper,we take Wuxi City as a case,use information entropy as well as equilibrium and dominant degree to describe the evolvement character of household energy consumption structure.The result of data analysis is satisfactory.Besides the informational entropy,some other laws in dissipation system are also suitable.The evolvement characters of information entropy are completely different before and after1994in Wuxi City.The evolvement trend is consistent with the average real discretionary income and total energy consumption for per-urban resident.Based on the profound analysis of evolvement character and its reason,this paper gives a primary prospect of the energy structure for urban resident in Wuxi City.With the implementation of“Moving West Gas East Project”,the household energy consumption structure will have a drastic change.Electric power and natural gas will became the two main energies in household energy structure.