21世纪全国及九大流域片粮食需求预测分析

A Predicative Analysis of the Grain Demand in the Nine Major Chinese River Basins in the 21st Century

中国人多地少,粮食安全保障很大程度依赖于灌溉。水资源短缺的现实要求科学合理地制定未来灌溉面积发展、农业用水及国家食物安全政策,而对未来我国粮食需求的准确预测分析是其基础和前提。因此,本文利用开发的CAPSIM-PODIUM模型为工具,预测分析了2010和2020年全国及九大流域片包括大米、小麦和玉米等粮食需求量。研究表明,人口增加和收入提高后间接引起饲料粮需求增加是未来粮食需求增长的主要原因。预计2020年全国粮食(贸易粮)需求将达到5.07亿t,比2000年提高25％。人均口粮消费还会缓慢下降。玉米等饲料粮需求将快速增长。

As China is the largest populated country and her arable land is relatively small, the irrigation is decisive for the food yield. All this forecasts a premise of food demand in the future. Therefore, this paper simulates the grain (wheat, rice, and maize) demand in China, in particular, from the nine major Chinese river basins in 2010 and 2020 respectively, by the two models of CAPSIM and PODIUM, and by a comprehensive database at different national levels. The result shows that as the growth of population and income, food or fodder consumption will grow also. Thus, the tradable grain demand will increase by 25% in 2025 than 2000, with the average food consumption slowly decreasing but fodder, such as maize consumption quickly increasing.