基于卡尔曼滤波的电力系统短期负荷预测

Short-term load forecast of power system based on Kalman filter

介绍了卡尔曼滤波的算法,给出了一套递推计算公式,将此算法应用于短期负荷预测,并针对负荷预测本身的特点对算法进行了改进,用两种算法进行了实际的负荷预测计算,取得了比较准确的预测结果。

Kalman filter is an optimal estimation algorithm. Firstly, the algorithm and principle of optimal estimation using Kalman filter are introduced. Forecast model of Kalman filter is emphasized and a set of formulas of this model are put forward.And then,forecast model of Kalman filter is used in short-term load forecast and achieves a satisfactory result. The model is revised by an approach aiming at the characteristics of load forecast. Using this revised model, the errors of the forecast values are remarkably reduced,which proves that Kalman filter is an effective method for short-term load forecast.