粮食单产波动与政策性农业保险制度

Fluctuations of Grain Per Unit Yield and Agriculture Insurance System by Policy

粮食安全是我国最重要的长期政策目标之一。粮食单产的波动不仅直接影响当年粮食供应的稳定,而且影响粮农的预期收入和下期生产决策,从而扩大后续的供应波动。本文考察了各省市粮食单产的波动特征,结果表明,全国平均波动水平并不能反映各地区粮食单产波动的真实状况;粮食主产区的波动系数和波动幅度要比其它地区高;西部地区现阶段尚不具备充当国家商品粮生产基地的条件。要加强粮食安全,必须稳定粮食主产区粮农的收入预期,政策性农业保险制度是"绿箱政策"中一项较好的选择。

Grain safety is one of China's most important long-term policy aims. Fluctuations of grain per unit yield influences not only the stability of the current year's grain supply, but also the anticipated income of farmers and the production policy for the next period. They further expand the fluctuations of follow-up supply. This paper observes the fluctuation features of grain per unit yield in each province in China, the results of which show that the national average fluctuation level is not a true reflection of the grain per unit yield in each province, the fluctuation index and scope of main grain-producing regions are much higher than other regions, and the western regions is not at present stage qualified to be the national commercial grain production base. To stabilize the farmers' anticipated income in main grain production regions is a must if grain safety is to be reinforced. Agriculture insurance system by policy is a better choice in the 'Green Box Policy'.