半结构决策方法在松花江蓄洪区选址问题中的研究

A RESEARCH ON SEMI-STRUCTURAL DECISION METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION TO FLOOD BASIN LOCATION PROBLEM IN SONGHUA RIVER

研究松花江蓄洪区选址问题的决策方法。松花江蓄滞洪区选址问题涉及诸多定性指标和定量指标 ,属于半结构决策问题。本文综合层次分析法和模糊优选法 ,提出求解这类问题的一种半结构决策方法。基本方法是 :将评价指标分为定性指标和定量指标 ;对于定性应用层次分析法 ,求其评价矩阵 ;对于定量指标应用相对隶属度方法 ,求其评价矩阵 ;二者合成得到全体指标的评价矩阵 ;最后利用模糊优选法求得最优决策。应用该方法于松花江流域蓄滞洪区的方案选择中。

The present paper is aimed at studying the locating method of flood detention basin in Songhua River. It is well known that there may exist numerous criterions as to locating flood detention basin, some of which are of qualitative and others of quantitative nature. That is to say, locating flood detention basin, in general, belongs to semi-structure decision-making category. Starting from the analysis of the problem, the paper has discussed the approach to its solution by combining AHP method with fuzzy optimal options. Since it is necessary to preserve the flood safety in Harbin area in locating the flood detention basin in Songhua River, the main part of flood control project is to control the flood core in this area. The key point is to select the flood basin, which involves: the criterion indexes (qualitative indexes and quantitative indexes); the qualitative indexes as to the analytic hierarchy process method and the calculation of criterion matrix; the quantitative indexes as to the fuzzy relative membership method to be used and the criterion matrix to be found. It is also necessary to combine the above two matrixes into the criterion matrix and to make use of fuzzy optimal selection method eventually to achieve the optimal decision.