应用简单变量统计模型预测庆元地区滑坡危险性

Applying Simple-Variable Statistical Model to Prediction of Landslide Hazards of Qingyuan

庆元县是浙江省滑坡灾害发生严重地区之一,开展滑坡预测尤为重要。以研究区的滑坡点位资料、地形数据、土壤类型数据、岩石类型数据及遥感TM数据为基础资料,提取滑坡的影响因素。统计获取了滑坡与因素的关系特征,并应用简单变量统计模型开展了研究区滑坡灾害预测。预测结果显示,研究区滑坡灾害危险性高值区分布较广,主要分布在松源镇的中部、安南乡中部、淤上乡的东部及隆宫乡的北部,其危险性大,而在其它地区,滑坡灾害危险性为低值区,危险性小。

Qingyuan County is one of the heaviest landslide regions in Zhejiang Province.It's necessary to predict and evaluate landslide hazards in the region. In the paper, based on the distribution of landslide points, topographical data, soil types data, lithology data, and remote sensing data of TM, the author extract landslide influence factors, and calculate the relationship between landslide and influence factors.Simple-variable statistical model was used to predict and evaluate landslide hazards of the research region. Prediction shows that highly dangerous landslides are distributed in the middle of Songyuan town, in the middle of Annan town, in the east of Yushang town and in the north of Longgong town,which agrees well with the realities in those regions.