新疆人口变动对生态环境的未来影响趋势与协调发展对策——以塔里木河流域为例

Possible Impact of Population Change on Environmental Evolution of Xinjiang in Future and Countermeasures-Taking Tarim River Valley as an Example

通过对一个典型干旱区内陆河流域———＿新疆塔里木河流域的人口与生态环境演变之间互动机制的分析,用系统动力学方法建立了该流域的动态仿真模型。通过模型的多方案运行,观察未来该流域各种人口变动条件下生态环境的可能演变后果,从而提出有利于流域生态环境的合理人口变动条件与政策,为有关部门提供决策参考。

On the basis of analysis on the interacting mechanics between population change and environmental evolution in a typical arid inland valley_Tarim River Valley, we construct an interrelationship model of population and environmental evolution with systematic dynamics method. Through setting a series of scenarios, this model shows various possible outputs of eco-environment change in the lower reaches under different conditions of population change in the whole valley as well as different reaches. By comparing those outputs, we gain some important conclusions: Firstly, if the population growth rates in all reaches holds zero level, the EDI(environmental degradation index) will drop obviously, and the growth degree of the EDI will be delayed by at least 5-years. Secondly, the impact from the population in headstream on lower reaches environment is the heaviest when comparing with the impacts from other reaches, so controlling the population growth of headstream is a key factor. In the end of the paper we point out some countermeasures and suggestions from both birth control and immigration aspects.