人民币已进入了长期升值预期的阶段了吗?

Has RMB Entered to the stage of long-time Appreciation?

近来 ,关于人民币汇率问题的议论成了社会热门话题 ,但却缺少真正从理论或实证方面严肃分析人民币汇率问题的讨论。本文从一个随机的开放经济模型出发 ,探讨了汇率决定的机制 ,基本结论是 ,像中国这样的发展中的国家 ,虽然经济保持长期高增长 ,但因增长的不稳定性与市场风险较大 ,其货币在相当长的时期都存在贬值预期 ,只有在经济增长风险降到一定水平后才可能产生升值预期 ,而目前中国并未达到这一水平。所以 ,目前人民币的升值压力并不是长期的 。

Recently, about the exchange rate of RMB is discussed popular, but this discussion lacks the theory or empire analysis. This article embarked from a stochastic opening economical model to analysis the mechanism of exchange rate. Our basic conclusion is that China as a developing open country, its currency is an expectation of depreciation in quite long time, only after its economic growth risk had fall to a certain level then its currency can be the expectation of appreciation, but China had not achieve this level at present. Therefore, the pressure of appreciation to RMB is certainly not long-terms, the pressure comes from some benefit groups' short-term behaviors.