对日本小泉内阁经济结构改革的前景预测

On the Forecast of the Prospect of the Economic Structural Reforms by Japanese Koizumi Cabinet

面对通货紧缩和经济衰退等一系列问题,在经历了前三届内阁的失败后,以"改革派"形象出现在世人面前的小泉内阁走马上任。新内阁试图从日本经济的长远发展需要出发,进行全方位的结构改革,但在其实施两年之后,似乎有走回头路的迹象。基于缺乏一个坚强的领导核心、旧制度的强大惯性和既得利益集团对改革的阻碍等,小泉内阁的结构改革前景并不乐观。

Facing a series of problems such as deflation and economic recession, the Koizumi Cabinet came to the power taking the recognition of 'reform school' after the failure of the three former Cabinets' attempts. It seems to go back from the 2 year so-called 'structural reforms'which focus on the long-run economic performance.Judging from the lack of strong core leadership, the powerful inertia of the existing system and the hindrance of the interest groups to the reforms, we are not optimistic about the prospect of the structural reforms in Japan.