温室效应对我国长江中下游地区气候的影响——数值模拟

Influence of greenhouse effect on climate in middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River:numerical simulation

利用RegCM2区域气候模式嵌套一个全球模式,进行了CO2加倍情况下对中国区域气候影响的数值试验,对长江中下游地区的情况进行了重点分析。结果表明,在CO2加倍的情况下,长江中下游地区的气温将明显升高,升高值一般在2.3～2.5℃以上,但低于全国平均值。同时,其大部分区域的降水也将增加,特别是在冬季和夏季,但年平均的增加率仅为7%,也低于全国平均值。温室效应会使该地区的日平均最高和最低气温升高,降水日数增多。夏季降水的增多可能会导致这一地区夏季更多的洪涝灾害。

Using a regional climate model (Reg CM2) nested in a global ocean-atmosphere model (CSIRO R21 L9 AOGCM), a numerical simulation of regional climate effect of doubling CO2 in China is conducted with the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as a focal area in analysis.Results show that under the influence of CO2 doubling,the temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River would rise obviously, and the increment of the temperature would be generally over 2.3～2.5℃, which is lower than average of whole China. At same time the precipitation in greater part of the reaches would be increased,especially in winter and summer with percentage increment of 7%,which is still lower than that of whole China.Greenhouse effects will make the daily highest and lowest temperature up and days with precipitation much. Increase of precipitation in summer might bring on more flood disasters.