农业气象灾害风险评估体系及模型研究

Risk evaluation system and models of agrometeorological disasters

从灾害风险分析的角度构建了一个由我国北方冬小麦干旱、江淮冬小麦渍涝、东北作物夏季低温冷害以及华南荔枝和香蕉冬季寒害组合的灾害风险评估体系。该体系由风险辨识、风险估算和风险评价组成。风险辨识分别阐明了上述各灾种的孕灾环境、致灾因子和承灾体的灾情特征。在风险评估方面,基于灾害性质、灾损和抗灾性能的含义,提出了相应的风险概念模型,根据多年产量资料和气象资料,提出了应用性强、可操作的各种灾害的灾害强度风险概率模拟模式和灾损风险概率模拟模式、抗灾性能模式,并采用逐年产量和气象资料的样本序列,由上述模拟模式估算了各种灾害强度和不同灾损发生的风险概率及风险指数,阐述了风险水平的地区差异。在风险评价方面,根据对各种灾损的风险指标进行综合,分别提出了风险区划指标,并进行了风险区域划分。

From point of view on risk analysis of disasters, the risk evaluation system of disasters related to drought of winter wheat in northern China, waterlogging of winter wheat in Jianghuai Valley,cool injury of crop in summer in Northeast China and cold damage of banana and litchi in South China is established. The system consists of risk (identification),risk estimation and risk evaluation.In the risk identification ,the disasters-pregnant environment,disasters-causing factors and characteristics of damaged situation are clarified. In the risk evaluation, based on characteristics of disasters,loss of disasters and meanings of resistant capability, the corresponding risk probability model are put forward; applying yield data and meteorological data of many years, the applied and operable risk probability models on intensity,loss and resistant capability of every disaster are put forward too; applying the yield data and meteorological data of every year, the risk probability and risk index of disasters with different intensities and losses are estimated by the models mentioned above; and the regional difference of risk levels are clarified. In the risk evaluation, the risk indices of loss caused by every disasters are synthesized, the index of risk zonation are presented and then risk zonation are made.