黑龙江省未来30和50年气候变化预测

Prediction of climate change in Heilongjiang Province in coming 30 and 50 years

利用CCCma,CCSR,CSIRO,Gfdl和Hadley气候模式,对黑龙江省齐齐哈尔、佳木斯、哈尔滨和牡丹江等4个地区未来50年(2005～2050年)内,在GG,GS情景下的气温变化进行了数值预测。结果表明,在GS情景下,到2030和2050年,气温较目前均有较大增高。2030年年均温度可增高1.94℃,其中春季增高2.06℃,夏季增高1.29℃,秋季增高1.79℃,冬季增高2.66℃,说明冬季增温最大,依次为春季、秋季和夏季;其中西部齐齐哈尔增温最大,其次为佳木斯,再次为哈尔滨和牡丹江。2050年气温继续增高,年均将增高2.42℃,其中春季增高2.13℃,夏季增高1.68℃,秋季增高2.56℃,冬季增高3.21℃,冬季仍然是四季中增幅最大的,其次为秋季、春季和夏季。如果按GG情景考虑,未来气温较GS情景还要高出1℃,增温最大的仍为西部齐齐哈尔,增温最小的仍为牡丹江。

In this paper, the numerical simulation of the climate for the next 50 years (2005-2050) in Heilongjiang Province, including Qiqihaer, Jiamusi, Harbin and Mudanjiang regions, is carried out using CCCma, CCSR, CSIRO, Gfdl and Halley climate model for GG and GS scenes. The result of simulation for GS scenario indicates that the air temperature will rise significantly by 2030 and 2050. Up to 2030,the temperature will rise (1.94℃) on an average and 2.06℃ in spring, 1.29℃ in summer, 1.79℃ in fall, and 2.66℃ in winter. This indicates that warming takes maximum in winter, then in spring, fall and summer successively. In all four regions, the warming is the greatest in Qiqihaer, followed by Jiamusi, Harbin, and Mudanjiang. Temperature rising will be continuous up to 2050, which will be 2.42℃ on average and 2.13℃ in spring, 1.68℃ in summer, 2.56℃ in fall, and 3.21℃ in winter. Winter is still the season with the greatest warming and followed by fall, spring and summer. The result of simulation for GG scenes shows more temperature increase of 1℃ compared to that for GS, with the warming still being the greatest in Qiqihaer and the least in Mudanjiang.