2003年北京市SARS死亡危险因素分析

Analysis of Death Risk Factors of SARS in Beijing in 2003

目的 探讨影响传染性非典型肺炎死亡发生的危险因素。方法 将北京市传染性非典型肺炎疫情报告卡数据库以及流行病调查个案数据库连接 ,对有效记录进行单因素 χ2 检验与多因素非条件Logistic逐步回归分析。结果 (1)单因素分析显示 ,年老 (大于 6 0岁 )、非三级医院、非定点医院、发病前 2月内有患病史、非医务人员、就诊时间间隔 >1天是导致传染性非典型肺炎死亡发生的危险因素 ;(2 )多因素Logistic逐步回归表明 ,有 4个因素 (是否小于 6 0岁、是否为医务人员、就诊间隔天数、是否为定点医院 )对死亡的影响有统计学意义。结论 年老是造成死亡的主要危险因素 ,而医务人员、定点医院和就诊天数 <1天等因素起一定的保护作用。

Objective It is purposed to explore the relations between multivariate factors and the death cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndromes (SARS) in Beijing.Methods Data of SARS cases notified from Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention(BCDC)and supplemented by other channels were collected.χ 2-test and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed by all the data.Results Through univariate analysis,the death of SARS had significantly associations with oldness,whether the hospital was with the 3th rank,whether the hospital was appointed one,whether the patient had any disease in the past 2 months,whether the patient worked for the hospital,whether the time of visiting doctor of the patient was more than 1 day.The result of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that there were 4 risk factors associated with the death of SARS.Conclusion The oldness is the main risk factor causing the death of SARS.While hospital worker,appointed hospital and the fact that the time of visiting doctor of the patient was less than 1 day might play some protective role in the development of SARS.