贝叶斯概率洪水预报系统

Probabilistic Flood Forecasting System Based on Bayesian Method

贝叶斯概率洪水预报系统考虑预见期内定量降水预报不确定性和水文模型及参数等水文不确定性,通过全概率公式将两者结合起来得到预报概率密度函数。通过实例研究,结果表明该法为防洪决策提供了可靠的理论依据,实现了预报与决策过程的有机耦合,可显著提高洪水预报精度。

Probabilistic flood forecasting system based on Bayesian method is introduced. The total uncertainty is decomposed into precipitation uncertainty and hydrologic uncertainties. The two uncertainties are integrated together to get the predictive density function. By using the hydrologic data of Baiyunshan reservoir basin, the Bayesian method for probabilistic flood forecasting is discussed and examined. The result shows that the system can provide reliable theoretic base for the flood control decision-making, which combines forecasting and decision-making process together, and greatly increases the forecasting precision.