结构时变可靠性问题的信息更新和Bayes方法

Application of Information Updating with Bayes Approach in Time-dependent Structural Reliability Analysis

结合土木工程的特点和近年来研究的发展趋势 ,认为对结构时变可靠性问题的认识应有一个重要转变 ,即应充分利用信息的不断更新 ,从静态思维转向动态思维。在有效信息的发掘和利用方法方面 ,分析了信息和不确定性的特点 ,认为Bayes方法可以综合已发生的自然信息和预测的意识信息 ,是实现信息的更新的有力工具 ,也为解决时变可靠性问题提供新的途径。基于Bayes方法发展了一种考虑检测信息的结构可靠性预测评估方法 ,结果表明信息的更新能够使可靠性决策更为准确。

Structural reliability may vary with time due to the effect of resistance degradation and condition changes in service life. Based on review of current research of time-dependent structural reliability and analysis of the characteristics of engineering structures, there must be a change in dealing with the time-dependent reliability problems, that is, a shift from static to dynamic thought with utilization of information updating. To dig and utilize the information more effectively, the paper analyzes the property of information and uncertainties, and concludes that the Bayes approach can combine natural information and epistemic information to reduce knowledge-based epistemic uncertainties in reliability analysis. Thus, the Bayes approach can serve as a powerful tool for information updating and provides a new solution for time-dependent reliability analysis. A new reliability assessment and prediction method which takes account of the inspection data is developed based on Bayes approach, the application result shows that the renewal of information can make reliability decision more accurate.