有关预测精度的几个问题

On some Problems in the Accuracy Analysis of Forecasting

费革胜在《预测的精度分析》一文(以下称文[1])中对预测的精度问题进行了研究,提出了预测的精度应满足的5个原则,同时分别就点预测和区间预测给出了精度计算公式,并证明了两者的统一性,为更深入研究预测的精度问题奠定了基础。在进一步的研究中我们发现[1]所给出的两个精度公式存在较大的局限和缺陷。下面拟从几个不同角度出发,提出预测精度应满足的另外一些原则。

In this paper, we will put forward several other conditions for the forecasting accuracy, they are the principle of symmetry, the principle of relativityand the principle of unity. Then we' 11 give two formulas of. forecastingaccuracy, which improve the formulas given by Fei Geshen.