心理测验中的趋中回归与超常分数重现概率

REGRESSION TOWARD THE MEAN IN PSYCHOLOGICAL TESTING AND THE REOCCURRENCE PROBABILITY OF EXTREME SCORES

研究了心理测验中的趋中回归及其性质 ,超常分数重现概率与真分数的分布、测验信度、超常分数界值的关系。结果表明 ,信度越低 ,趋中回归越大 ;超常分数界值越高 ,趋中回归越大。在正态分布下 ,超常分数重现概率与信度是指数关系 ;超常分数重现概率与界值是直线关系。初步讨论了如何在心理学研究中避免和减少趋中回归的误导。

The regression toward the mean and other related characteristics in psychological testing were examined. The relations of reoccurrence probability of extreme scores to the distribution of true score, reliability, and the cutoff value of extreme scores were also scrutinized. Results showed that the regression toward the mean effect is larger when the reliability is lower or when the cutoff value is more extreme. For normally distributed data, the reoccurrence probability is related to reliability exponentially and to cutoff values linearly. Methods to avoid the regression toward the mean artifact were also generally discussed.