两点判断外延预测法及其应用的研究

A Two-point Judgement Projection Method of Forecasting

1 问题的提出时间序列预测方法,如移动平均法、指数平滑法、自适应过滤法、趋势曲线外延法等,由于模型简单,需要的资料少,计算容易,在工业企业产品销售短期预测中广为使用。在与某机械制造厂销售计划部门共同研究产品销售预测过程中,我们根据该厂1982年以来的产品销售统计数据,分别用移动平均法、指数平滑法和自适应过滤法对未来年度的产品销售量做了预测研究。有关预测结果如表1所示。

This paper establish projection models from the last two data of the time series and then present two-point judgement projection method of forecasting. Its application shows that the method is easy to understand and high in accuracy, and particularly suitable when there are abrupt turns in a time series.