110m栏世界及我国选手刘翔最好成绩的灰色模型及其预测

Gray Model and Forecast of Hurdles the Best Results in the World and Chinese Liuxiang

针对运动成绩变化规律的未知性、不明确性和模糊性等特点,应用灰色系统理论和方法,以历年世界(1998-2003年)110米栏最好成绩和我国优秀选手刘翔年度(1998-2003年)最好成绩(截至2003年9月7日)为数据,建立灰色模型GM (1,1 ) ,并对其增长规律进行了分析和预测。通过比较得出我国优秀选手刘翔的运动竞技水平发展的潜力空间以及在2004年奥运会所能取得的最好成绩。

Based on the characteristics of the laws of changes in sports results, such as the uncertainness, indefiniteness and fuzziness. The gray model, GM(1.1)of the Chinese Liu xiang (1998-2003) and the world hurdles the best results (1998-2003) ,for which were made before sep 7th,was established by applying the gray model of the gray system theory. The regulation was analyzed and forecasted, the sports result of Liuxiang in 2004 Olympic game was predicted using this model.