SARS流行病传染动力学研究

Infectious Kinetics of SARS Epidemic

Logistic确定型增长模型可被用来描述严重急性呼吸道综合症 (SARS)的流行规律 ,通过对部分国家、地区及中国内地部分省市的数据进行拟合 ,及其对拟合结果的分析 ,揭示了各个地区SARS传染力不均匀的现象 ,以及在控制措施上的差异所带来的不同效果 .同时 ,还对超级传播现象 (SSEs)

The Logistic model is improved for the description of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which is infecting all over the world especially in China. The model simulates the situations of SARS in different countries and in different provinces of China. The results reveal the asymmetrical phenomenon of the infection of SARS. The conditions that cause the infectious disease in natural circumstance and the factors that added by human for the control of SARS are considered in the model. The different measures, which are used to control the disease, can lead to different results. The phenomenon of super spread events (SSEs) is also discussed.