呼和浩特市80余年气温序列的小波分析

WAVELET ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE DATA FOR OVER 80 YEARS IN HUHHOT

利用小波变换时域局部性的特点,对呼和浩特市1915～2000年冬季和全年的平均气温时间序列资料进行了小波分析.研究了呼和浩特市在不同时间尺度上的气温状况,指出气温变化的阶段性、周期性和突变性等特征,揭示了长期的气温变化规律.呼和浩特市冬季气温时间序列主要存在7年左右和2～3年左右的周期振荡,在较大的时间尺度上,较为明显的气温突变点位于1933年、1955年、1975年和1993年左右;全年平均气温时间序列主要存在13年左右和5年左右的周期振荡,在较大的时间尺度上,气温突变点位于1930年和1970年左右,有一个明显的偏冷期.预测呼和浩特市冬季和全年气温在较大的时间尺度上将继续维持偏暖的趋势.

The time series temperature data of winter and the whole year for over 80 years from 1915 to 2000 in Huhhot are analyzed by using the wavelet transform.From analyzing the over 80 years data,the conclusions that temperature changes of some region or area exist certain regularity,such as periodicity and mutability can be drawn.Not only the temperature state at the different time scales but also the periodicity and the mutability of temperature changes in Huhhot are analyzed.From the analysis,7 years and 2～3 years periods are found in winter time series,and 13 years,5 years periods are found in the whole years time series.Additionally,the time that the temperature appeared to change is also showed and the temperature change tendency in the future is forecast from a large scale.