二元制度下中国农村剩余劳动力自发流动模型的建立及其政策含义

The establishment of the spontaneous mobile modelof excess rural work force and its polity omplication with in two-structure system

本文利用人力资本投资的理论,建立了一个二元制度背景下的中国农村劳动力自发流动模型,指出影响农民做出外出务工决策的主要因素是其流入城市的净收益现值,并对决定这一现值的各变量进行了考察。作者认为二元的经济和社会体制降低了农民的流动和迁移意愿,限制了农民的外出。最后作者提出了短期内促进农民工流动和长期内保证农民迁移的政策建议。

Applying the theory of human capital investment,in this article we set up a model of rural surplus labors'automatic flow under the background of dual institutions in China,pointing out that the main factor that influences farmer's decision upon working outside their hometown is the present value of net return from their working in cities and studying all the variables that determine this present value.We hold that the dual economic and social system undermines farmers'will of migrating,thus pre-venting them from working in cities.In the end of this article,we position policies that promote farmers'flowing into cities in the short run and ensure migrating into cities in the long run.