摘要
By using Caterpillar-SSA analysis method, through the process of embedding, singular value decompo-sition, grouping and diagonal averaging, the seasonal pre-cipitation trend at north Helan Mountain and Baiyinaobo regions, Inner Mongolia for the next 20 years is forecasted. The results show an increasing precipitation trend from 1992 to 2004. In the subsequent decade the precipitation should reduce quickly, and it will reach a minimum near 2012 to 2014 in both regions. The drought caused by the decrease of the precipitation from May to July in the north Helan Mountain area during the period of 2013—2014 is probably quite similar to that around 1929. Further, the period of pre-cipitation gradual increase follows in the researched regions.
By using Caterpillar-SSA analysis method, through the process of embedding, singular value decompo-sition, grouping and diagonal averaging, the seasonal pre-cipitation trend at north Helan Mountain and Baiyinaobo regions, Inner Mongolia for the next 20 years is forecasted. The results show an increasing precipitation trend from 1992 to 2004. In the subsequent decade the precipitation should reduce quickly, and it will reach a minimum near 2012 to 2014 in both regions. The drought caused by the decrease of the precipitation from May to July in the north Helan Mountain area during the period of 2013—2014 is probably quite similar to that around 1929. Further, the period of pre-cipitation gradual increase follows in the researched regions.
关键词
贺兰山
内蒙古
季降水量预测
气候变化
north Helan Mountain, Baiyinaobao, precipitation trend, forecast.
