湖南省耕地动态变化及驱动机制研究

Analysis of Dynamic Changes and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land in Hunan Province

利用 194 9～ 1999年的统计和普查数据 ,分析探讨了湖南省近 5 0年来耕地数量变化及区域差异 ,并在此基础上进一步探讨了影响耕地数量动态变化的驱动机制。结果表明 :5 0年来 ,湖南省耕地总体态势逐年下降 ,耕地变化区域差异显著 ;经济增长是形成湖南省耕地数量变化的主要宏观驱动因子 ,耕地快速减少在发生时间上与经济发展的增长基本同步 ,具体则受固定资产投资规模的牵动 ;在空间分布上具有与地区间经济发展速度和水平的差异相一致的特点。影响耕地数量动态变化驱动机制具体表现为 :非农产业的发展建设与人口城镇化的发展对耕地的冲击 ,种植业效益下降、耕地利用方向的调整以及管理上的不完善和疏漏等。

According to statistical and survey data from 1949 to 1999, dynamic changes of quantitative and regional differences of cultivated land in Hunan Province during the last 50 years are analysed. Based on which, the mechanism driving forces for the effect of the economy and population on the change in the cultivated land ares is dealt with in this article .The results indicates that the general trend of cultivated land during the past 50 years was decreasing and regional differences of cultivated land was very notable . The idiographic factors influencing the dynamic change of cultivated land quantity include: (1)the increasingly strong conflict from non-agricultural activities and construction,such as urbanization,industrialization, township and village infrastucture construction land;(2)the farmer′s incomes from planting is much lower than the output for the means of agricultural production,casuing jeopardizing farmer′s enthusiasm in cultivation activities and adjusting the structure of utilization in cultivatied land;(3)some inappropriate points in the present policies and land management and so on. In addition, the economic growth is the dominant macro-driving factor in decrease of cultivated land area in Hunan Province. The rapid decrease of cultivated land area coincided in time with the overheated economic growth resulting from the direct investment in fixed assets. The spatial distribution patterns for the decrease in arable land matched the differences in speed and scale of economic growth between different regions of the Hunan.