雨养农业区马铃薯产量的风险评估

The risk evaluation of potato output in the dry-farming region

以雨养农业区乌兰察布盟地区为例,以历年减产率指标、减产率变异系数、减产率概率指标和综合风险指数指标等为评估标准,结合小网格资源推算的方法,分析了乌兰察布盟地区马铃薯单产的风险分布规律。根据气候相似性原理,利用最优动态聚类的方法,给出马铃薯种植的风险区划。同时对影响马铃薯产量波动的风险成因进行分析,认为气象灾害的频繁发生是引起该地区马铃薯产量波动的主要因子之一。

In accordance with the evaluation criterious such as the output reduction rate in the past years, the variation coefficient and the probability of output reduction rate, and the synthesize risk, index this paper analyses the risk distribution law of potato yield in Wulanchabu pefecture in Inner Mongolia with the method of small grid resource calculation. Using the climate comparability theory and the optimal dynamic cluster method, the paper puts forward the regional division of potato production risk. Moreover, it analyses the factors that affect the output fluctuation of potato, and it is shown that the frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters is one of the main factors that cause the output fluctuation of potato in this area.