潜在自然植被研究与展望

The Study on the Potential Natural Vegetation and Future Prospect

植被-环境关系是全球变化与陆地生态系统关系研究的关键,由于受人类几千年活动的影响,全球原始自然植被所剩极少,植被的破坏掩盖了植被与环境之间的关系。如何重演反映环境决定特点的潜在自然植被,是植被-环境关系研究的起点。本文对潜在自然植被的概念、研究的时空尺度进行了论述,指出潜在自然植被研究2个发展阶段的特点:(1)传统的以经验为主的定性研究;(2)以潜在自然植被预测模型为基础的定量研究。在此基础上,提出今后我国潜在自然植被研究的重点应放在:针对我国自然植被分布的特点,构建适用于我国特定区域的潜在自然植被预测模型,对不同时空尺度下的潜在自然植被类型及其地理分布进行模拟与制图;单纯将气候作为潜在自然植被预测模型自变量的方法正逐渐为综合的环境变量方法所取代,并强调了潜在自然植被研究必须考虑与大气环流模式的耦合。

Global change has received more and more attention for decades.Understanding how terrestrial ecosystems would respond to global change is necessary for ensuring the earth suit - able for human existence and sustainable development in future climate.The study of vegeta - tion-environment relationship is the basis for the study of global change and terrestrial ecosys - tems.But the nature vegetation all over the earth has been destroyed or modified by the hu - mankind for thousands of human activities,and present vegetation is the result of long-term in - teraction between vegetation and site factors including man-made impacts.The devastation of the nature vegetation covers up the relationship between vegetation and environment.The stud - ies of vegetation-environment relationship based on the actual or existing vegetation can not re - flect the real relation between vegetation and environment.How to construct the potential natu - ral vegetation reflecting the environmental deciding factors is starting points for the research on vegetation-environment relationship.In this paper,the author briefly reviews the concept of the potential natural vegetation,summarizes the different time-spatial scales of the studies,and con - cludes the main characteristics of the two developing stages:(1)the traditional qualitative re - search based on the experience;(2)the quantitative research based on the predictive models.The following tendencies in relation to the studies on potential natural vegetation in China are pointed out:Establishment of the predictive vegetation models which will have China' s own distinguishing features,simulation and prediction of the potential natural vegetation in China us - ing these models at different time-spatial scales;replacement of the simple climate predictor by comprehensive environmental variable as the independent variable in the predictive model.At last the studies of the potential natural vegetation coupling with GCMs are emphasized.