区域土地利用变化的多情景分析——以内蒙古自治区太仆寺旗为例

Scenarios Analyses on the Spatio-temporal Patterns of Land Use Change--A Case Study in Taips County of Inner Mongolia

区域土地利用变化的情景分析涉及到影响土地利用变化的诸多因素,引起了目前学术界的广泛关注与重视。论文利用系统动力学模型与CLUE-S模型的理论框架,构建了太仆寺旗土地利用变化系统动力学模型及其时空变化模拟模型,通过对太仆寺旗土地利用变化的情景设计,实现了土地利用变化的多情景分析。研究表明,太仆寺旗在人口增长、经济发展与农牧业生产发展等宏观背景下,各种土地利用类型在诸驱动因子的综合作用下处于一个动态变化过程之中。不同的模式下,各用地类型间的竞争导致区域土地利用演替的差异较大,但参考模式、生态模式与经济模式的设计及其模拟出的土地利用变化情景,都显示出太仆寺旗县城东北部和西北部的未利用土地的集中分布区将成为未来近20年时间内土地利用变化的敏感地带。

Scenarios analyses of regional land use change, influenced by various factors, have become the hot-spots of LUCC studies. Regarding system dynamics model and CLUE-S model as the modeling framework, this paper designed a Land-Use Change System Dynamics (LUCSD) model and realized the scenario analyses of baseline, ecologically-oriented and economically-oriented models in Taips County(2000～2020). The findings are concluded that land use change is a dynamic process driven by population growth, economic improvement and farming and pasturing development, and unused land in the northeastern and northwestern parts of Taips County will be the sensitive areas of land use change in the coming nearly 20 years. Based on different scenarios models, competition between land-use types led to diversity storylines in some areas. In this sense, some effective measures should be taken to hold back the irreversible but irrational conversions among land use categories to protect the eco-environment and go along with a sustainable development in Taips County.