我国进口关税减让的宏观经济效应——可计算一般均衡模型分析

The Macroeconomic Impacts of China's Import Tariff Reduction——A Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis

可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型是分析宏观经济政策效应的有力工具,利用一个研究中国整体经济情况的CGE模型,模拟中国加入WTO组织后,进口关税逐年减让、出口退税率调整和间接税向直接税转化等条件下,中国整体经济运行情况,对进出口、国民总收入等主要宏观经济指标进行重点研究,提出一些可供选择的税收政策改革方案,以促进中国经济更加平稳地度过入世过渡期。同时指出本CGE模型的局限与改进方向。

China has made a promise to reduce its tariff when it becomes a member of World Trade Organization.It's sure that the promise will affect Chinese economy. This paper presents a Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) model, a powerful tool to analyze macro policy used widely in western countries, of the Chinese economy calibrated to 1999 production and household data, to evaluate the efficiency and distributional effects of China's joining the WTO. The model is used in counterfactual mode by replacing the existing(1999) Chinese tariff structure by a scheme of China's tariff reduction. We achieve some useful conclusions and give some advices to adjust the current policies, followed by the advice on improvement of this model and further research.