规则性与相机选择性货币政策的作用机制分析

The Positive Analysis of the Rules and Discretions in China's Monetary Policy

使用狭义货币存量(增长率)和银行同业拆借利率等作为货币政策的状态指标,能够分析货币政策可预期(不可预期)扩张性(紧缩性)冲击对实际产出的作用机制,并检验货币政策作用机制的非对称性。实证结果表明,我国货币政策中无论是规则性的可预期冲击,还是相机选择形成的不可预期冲击,都对实际产出的波动形成了显著作用。货币政策在短期内即具有影响价格的名义作用,也存在影响实际产出的实际作用。我国货币政策具有内生性和短期非中性等特征。

This paper uses M1 and cross bank interest rate as the monetary policy indicator of China,in order to study whether the distinctions among anticipated policy,unanticipated policy,positive innovations and negative innovations are relevant for explaining movement in real output.The results show that there are clear asymmetries in the anticipated/unanticipated and expansionary/contractionary policies.The evidence supports that monetary policy of China is non-neutral and endogenous in a short time.It has not only the nominal impact on price level,but also the real impact on real output.