挣值分析中项目完工成本预测方法的问题与出路

The Problem and Solution of Estimate at Completion Forecasting Method in Earned Value Analysis

现代项目管理知识体系中有关项目挣值分析的方法是在美国国防部1967年推出的项目"成本/工期控制系统规范(C/SCSC)"基础上发展而来的。根据美国项目管理协会(ProjectManagementInstitute—PMI)发布的项目管理知识体系指南(AGuidetoProjectManagementBodyOfKnowledge—PMBOK)2000年新版中的挣值分析方法,作者经过研究证明挣值分析中的项目成本预测方法存在着一些问题和局限性,本文全面讨论了这些问题和局限性并提出了相应的解决方案。

The Earned Value method of modern project management body of knowledge is originated from the 'Cost/Schedule Control System Criteria', which was put forward by the Department of Defense (D?oD) of USA in 1967. Based on the 'A Guide to Project Management Body of Knowledge—PMBOK' 2000 new edition of Project Management Institute?—PMI, the author found out that there are some deficiencies and problems in the part of Estimate At Completion—EAC forecasting method in Earned Value methodology. All these deficiencies and problems are discussed and the solution is put forward in this paper.