SARS传播模型及其趋势分析

Spread Model and Trend Analysis of SARS

围绕着SARS传播问题 ,建立并分析了传统的传染病模型 ,得出SARS传播的规律。并在此基础上引入了防控因子α ,借以量化政府及卫生部门采取隔离消毒措施对抑制SARS传播的积极效果 ;同时还采用了模糊数学的方法 ,就如何确定α值展开了探讨。

Focusing on the discussion of spread of SARS, a traditional contagious disease model was established and analyzed, and α (named anti-epidemic factor) was led into the model to quantify the active effect of isolation measures which were taken by the Government and Health Departments. Meanwhile, how to define the value of α was also discussed in this paper. By using Fuzzy Mathematics, a theoretical way to calculate the value was found.