动态权重灰色归类模型在南水北调西线工程岩爆风险评估中的应用

DYNAMICALLY WEIGHTED GREY OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR ROCKBURST RISK FORECASTING AND ITS APPLICATION TO WESTERN ROUTE OF SOUTH-NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT

根据现有研究成果,提出新的权重计算方法,建立了动态权重灰色归类模型;在进行岩爆预测时,提出了综合评判指数的概念,给出了新的评判方法。所提出的方法克服了传统多指标评判中采用等权重或定权重的缺点,可更为科学、准确地预测岩爆。应用该方法对南水北调西线长恰线典型洞段进行了岩爆预测,并与有限元方法进行对比,结果表明,该方法在岩爆分级预报中精度较高,具有良好的应用前景。

Based on the principles of grey correlation analysis and fuzzy mode identity,a dynamically weighted grey optimization model for forecasting rockburst risk is established. In rockburst forecast,a new judging method is developed for composite judging index systems. This method overcomes the disadvantages of traditional methods and gives more reasonable results. The method was applied to prediction of rockburts in typical tunnel sections designed for the western route the South-North Water Transfer Project. The obtained results are compared with FEM analysis and show more accurate predictions .