摘要
基于月径流序列是一类周期性的非平稳时间序列的特点,本文建立了季节性ARIMA 模型.文中编制了电算程序,并应用于水库的月径流预报,获得了满意的结果.
The monthly runoff series is a kind of the seasonal non-stationary time series.A seasonal ARIMA model of monthly runoff series is proposed in this paper,it is in accordance with the special charateristic of the monthly runoff.It's algorithm is programmed in FORTRAN language and is used in the forecast of monthly runoff of resourvoir,the result is satisfactory.
