中国高投资率与通货紧缩并存的原因分析

On the Relations and Co-occurrence of Higher Investment Rate and Deflation in China

改革开放以来,中国投资率有波动上升趋势,波动周期约为9年,波动幅度约为5个百分点,并且投资率在1993年通货膨胀时期和2002年通货紧缩时期都达到了40%以上,前者主要与投资增长率过高有关,后者主要与投资效率过低有关。如果今后中国不能改变通货紧缩局面或不能把投资效率提高到一定水平的话,那么投资增长率的进一步上升还将导致投资率再创历史最高水平。

Since the reform and open-up to the outside world, China has seen an increasing trend of high investment rate with a 9-year period of fluctuation and the rate mounted to 40% in the inflated 1993 and in the deflated 2002 respectively. The former case was related to the overgrowth of investment and the later one was related to lower investment efficiency. The paper believes that without changing the current deflation or the investment efficiency to a reasonable degree, the further growth of investment rate will reach even unprecedented highs.